Greater Vancouver Housing Market Outlook (Fall 2024)
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The average sale price in the Metro Vancouver housing market increased by 4.2 per cent between 2022 and 2023 (from $1,437,253 in 2022 to $1,497,546 in 2023), while the number of sales decreased by 14.5 per cent (from 7,715 from 2022 to 6,600 in 2023). The current housing market in Metro Vancouver is a balanced market, which is anticipated to continue into 2024. The first two quarters are likely to continue with downward trend in interest rates – when this happens, this will motivate buyers to re-enter the housing market and drive demand. Meanwhile, average residential sale price is predicted to increase by two per cent, and unit sales to decrease by three per cent in the year ahead. Unit sales are likely to have a slight decrease year-over-year due to continued limited inventory and consumers still recovering from economic impact of cost of living and interest rates. With that being said, there is still the potential for year-over-year value to increase, which will be reflected in the overall price of properties.
It is expected that the top three sought after neighbourhoods in 2024, in Metro Vancouver, will be Main, Mount Pleasant and Kitsilano. Liveability trends pinpoint that cost of living, access to overall amenities and public transportation, are key drivers fueling demand and sales activity for semi-detaches houses, which will continue to be the case in 2024. The dominant factor impacting local housing market conditions in Metro Vancouver, are interest rates paired along with the general cost of living, and low inventory. Demand will fluctuate, especially as the region continues to experience depleted levels of inventory when it comes to housing, ultimately dictating market conditions in Metro Vancouver now and into 2024.
“Not unlike many other markets across Canada, interest rates are a huge influence in the market here, in Metro Vancouver. For example, the recent pause on rates by the Bank of Canada (BoC) could cause bond yield to go down, which in turn should bring us lower fixed rate mortgages, which is a welcomed outcome for homebuyers, especially first timers,” says Tim Hill, Real Estate Advisor, RE/MAX All Points Realty. “It is anticipated that we will see a two per cent increase in overall price in 2024, while also seeing a decrease of three per cent in sales activity in 2024. The main causes for this are lack of housing inventory, and an increasing competitive market, which continue to drive demand.”
Top Trends:
- Metro Vancouver will continue to remain a balanced market in 2024.
- Semi-detached homes are likely to see the greatest demand in this region.
- First time homebuyers and move up families are looking at semi-detached, as well as condo homes between $1,100,000 and $1,500,000 in Main, Mount Pleasant and Kitsilano.
- In the luxury segment, younger adults specifically within the tech sector, are purchasing new construction and builds starting at $4,000,000 and up.
Vancouver housing market to continue as a seller’s market in 2021, prices expected to rise 4%
Vancouver real estate is expected to continue as a seller’s market in 2021. A healthy supply is anticipated for the downtown core and low interest rates will continue to impact housing activity. Buyers are anticipated to seek larger properties in suburban areas, rather than buying in the downtown core in 2021. The average sales price in Vancouver increased by 11.4% to $1,270,000 in 2020 (Jan. 1 – Oct. 31), compared to $1,140,000 in 2019 (Jan. 1 – Dec. 31). The RE/MAX Outlook for Vancouver real estate in 2021 is an increase of 4% in average price to approximately $1,320,800.
Who’s Driving Demand for Vancouver Real Estate?
Move-up buyers are currently driving demand in the Vancouver real estate market, which is expected to continue into 2021. Single-detached homes are the most popular property type with move-up buyers.
First-time homebuyers in Vancouver are typically single homebuyers looking for condominiums. These properties range in price from $400,000 to $500,00. Condominiums that are situated outside of the downtown core are drawing more first-time homebuyers than the condos located in the downtown core. It is expected to be a bit more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market in 2021 due to rising prices for condominiums in Vancouver.
Move-up buyers in the Vancouver housing market are typically young couples and families. Move-up buyers have encountered some difficulties when looking to purchase a new home in 2020, as it is a strong seller’s market in Vancouver currently, so you must go in subject free. In many cases there are multiple offers, up to 10 in some cases, which is always a struggle for move-up buyers looking to purchase.
The condominium market in Vancouver is most popular with single homebuyers. The average price for a condo in Vancouver is $802,591. Overall, the Vancouver condo market has not been as strong, especially in the downtown core. This is due to the demand for condos having been reduced, even since before COVID-19.
Vancouver’s luxury market is currently driven by foreign buyers with a typical starting price for a luxury condo in Vancouver being approximately $2,000,000, while starting price for a luxury detached home is approximately $4,000,000. The demand for luxury home has increased in 2020, due to the interest rates being low. This is expected to continue into 2021, as long as rates remain low.
Vancouver’s Hottest Neighbourhoods
Vancouver’s top-selling neighbourhoods in 2020 were Kitsilano, Fairview and Mount Pleasant. The neighbourhoods are expected to remain popular in 2021 as they are well accessed neighbourhoods in great locations.
Vancouver New-Home Construction
Vancouver’s new-home construction has been softer over the course of 2020, with it being stronger over the past 4 months, benefiting from the seller’s market. New-construction homes in Vancouver are on the high end in terms of pricing. The new-construction market in Vancouver has been firming up over the past couple of months, so overall the housing market has been stronger. This is expected to continue into 2021.
Canadian Housing Market in 2021
Canadians are on the move. RE/MAX isn’t calling this an “exodus,” but the re-location trend across the Canadian housing market is real, and it’s just one focus of the RE/MAX 2021 Housing Market Outlook Report. RE/MAX Canada anticipates healthy housing price growth at the national level, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing and widespread housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.
Due to these factors, the 2021 RE/MAX 2021 outlook for average residential prices is an estimate of +4% to +6% nation-wide. Here’s the regional break-down:
Additional report findings include:
- 35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021
- 45% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that move-up buyers will likely be a primary driver of the housing market demand in 2021
- Half of Canadians (53%) are confident that Canada’s housing markets will remain steady in 2021
- 52% of Canadians believe real estate will remain one of the best investment options in 2021
“Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “While we’ve seen a significant shift in buyer preferences this year, we believe factors such as the supply issue, pent-up demand and historically lower interest rates will continue to fuel activity in 2021.”
The Vancouver housing market remained strong in March, but began to slow down in mid-April due to COVID-19 lockdowns. Vancouver continued to experience high prices and low inventory during lockdowns, similar to pre-COVID levels, and multiple offer situations were prevalent throughout Q2.
May and June 2020 saw a pickup in housing market activity in Vancouver as restrictions lifted and buyers and sellers became more confident and comfortable with the thought of buying and selling.
The housing market pickup is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the summer and into fall as economies are now reopening and Canadians are becoming more comfortable with resuming activities. Moving into fall, based on recent activity, RE/MAX predicts that Vancouver, British Columbia home prices will increase by 3.6% throughout the rest of the year.
Western Canada
While COVID-19 lockdowns in March and April slowed down the housing market in Western Canada, transactions in Kelowna, Saskatoon and Vancouver resumed by May, with sales in both May and June surpassing year-over-year levels. Many buyers put their plans on hold at the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns, but they returned to the market quickly to make up for lost time. Edmonton’s housing market quickly bounced back to pre-COVID levels in June, while Saskatoon experienced its busiest June in years; this momentum is anticipated to continue into the fall market, with RE/MAX brokers and agents estimating a three-per-cent increase in average residential sale prices for the remainder of the year. Overall, brokers and agents in Western Canada say the potential buyers they are talking to are not too concerned with a potential second wave of COVID-19 impacting their real estate journey, and RE/MAX brokers are estimating steady activity to round out 2020.
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Canadian Housing Market Outlook
Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada’s housing market point to a strong market for the remainder of 2020. According to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers suggest that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6% during the remainder of the year. This is compared to the 3.7% increase that was predicted in late 2019.
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The pandemic has prompted many Canadians to reassess their living situations. According to a survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 32% of Canadians no longer want to live in large urban centres, and instead would opt for rural or suburban communities. This trend is stronger among Canadians under the age of 55 than those in the 55+ age group.
Not only are Canadians more motivated to leave cities, but changes in work and life dynamics have also shifted their needs and wants for their homes. According to the survey, 44% of Canadians would like a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard.
Canadians equally split on their confidence in the housing market
Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canada’s real estate market, with 39% as confident as they were prior to the pandemic, and 37% slightly less confident. When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56% of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canada’s real estate market are still likely to buy or sell.
“While COVID-19 lockdowns slowed Canada’s housing market at the start of a typically busy spring market, activity bounced back by early summer in many regions, including Vancouver and Toronto,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained, and current market activity further exemplifies this. Many homebuyers are now exploring different neighbourhoods that better suit their new lifestyles, and real estate agents are getting busier and working more with buyers from different major cities. According to our brokers and agents across the RE/MAX network, Canada’s fall market is expected to see spring market-like activity.”
Additional highlights from the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report Survey:
- 48% of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces
- 48% of Canadians say it’s more important than ever to live in a community close to hospitals and clinics
- 33% of Canadians would like more square footage in their home and have realized they need more space
- 44% of Canadians want a home with more outdoor space and personal amenities (i.e. balcony, pool etc.)
About the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report
The 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments.
The Vancouver West housing market experienced a balanced market for most of 2019, with a shift to a buyer’s market in the spring. The Vancouver West market is expected to increase by 4% due to an uptick in buyer confidence returning to the market. Currently there are 4.5 months of inventory left on the market, as sales increase, we are beginning to see inventory levels drop so this is expected to be 15% lower in 2020.
The most influential factors impacting market activity in 2020 include supply, interest rates and how sellers price their homes. Higher prices are expected in 2020 due to increasing sales and reduction on inventory. Housing affordability continues to challenge first time buyers in the region when it comes to home ownership, with many opting to buy condominiums instead of detached homes.
The hottest neighbourhood in 2020 is Kitsilano for detached homes, and False Creek for condos. Both neighbourhoods are extremely well located with proximity to transportation, restaurants and community services as well as more affordable price ranges. The top neighborhoods in Vancouver West for sales include Kitsilano, Arbutus and Kerrisdale.
First-time and move up buyers are expected to continue to drive demand in 2020 with condos being the popular property type for first-time home buyers.
From a national perspective, RE/MAX anticipates a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected, with an estimated 3.7-per-cent increase in the average national residential sales price.
“The drop in sales in key markets across British Columbia can be partially attributed to Canadians’ increasing difficulty in getting an affordable mortgage in the region,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “The situation created by the introduction of the mortgage stress test this year, as well as continually increasing interest rates, means more Canadians will be priced out of the market.
Click to read the full RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report.
Learn more about RE/MAX real estate franchise opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Region and Western Canada.
The Vancouver East housing market is currently balanced, which is expected to continue into 2020 due to strong market activity in the region. The RE/MAX average sale price for Vancouver East is expected to increase by eight per cent in 2020.
Continued population growth and price increases are expected to boost the residential market in Vancouver East. Housing affordability in the region continues to be a concern, especially to young buyers affected by the stress test. Factors like densification in city centers and proximity to transit are expected to impact market activity.
The hottest neighbourhoods in Vancouver East for sales include Collingwood, Mount Pleasant and South Marine. The most popular property type is condominiums, with young couples and single millennial buyers driving the condo market. Move-up buyers drove the housing market in 2019.
From a national perspective, RE/MAX anticipates a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected, with an estimated 3.7-per-cent increase in the average national residential sales price.
“The drop in sales in key markets across British Columbia can be partially attributed to Canadians’ increasing difficulty in getting an affordable mortgage in the region,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “The situation created by the introduction of the mortgage stress test this year, as well as continually increasing interest rates, means more Canadians will be priced out of the market.
Click to read the full RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report.
Learn more about RE/MAX real estate franchise opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Region and Western Canada
The post Greater Vancouver Housing Market Outlook (Fall 2024) appeared first on RE/MAX Canada.
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